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  Additional Information
  This is additional information not included in the printed 2008 Annual Report.
   
 
CO2 emissions scenarios from 2025 to 2050    
   
 

In the longer term (to 2050) it is considered possible to achieve absolute reductions in the tons of CO2 we emit, as we replace existing coal-fired power stations with lower carbon emitting technologies. Many more options become available for diversification over this timeframe as lead times for building and roll-out are no longer a constraining factor and expected technological advances are realised. There is clearly a great deal of uncertainty introduced over this longer time frame, considering, among others, economic growth and the actual improvements in technology.

The following two graphs demonstrate two possible combinations of diversification options that reduce CO2 emissions below 2007 levels in this longer-term. They show a projected relative contribution of energy efficiency and diversification options to the reduction of CO2 emissions.

 Technology  Reference Case  Scenario A
   Efficiency  Load growth 4.4% per year to 2026;  2.5% (no efficiency) to 2050  Reduces expected  growth in annual demand  by estimated 0.23%
   Renewables  900 MW wind by 2026, 2GW by 2050  4.5GW wind plus 8.5GW  solar by 2050
   Nuclear  No new nuclear  40GW by 2050 (20GW by  2026)
   Hydro imports  No new imports  17GW by 2050
   Clean Coal  Supercritical (36%)  41% (2025); 45% (2030);  47% (2035)
   Capture & Storage  None  All new coal plant from  2035
 
 
   
 
 Technology  Reference Case  Scenario B
   Efficiency  Load growth 4.4% per year to 2026;  2.5% (no efficiency) to 2050  Reduces expected  growth in annual demand  by estimated 0.23%
   Renewables  900 MW wind by 2026, 2GW by 2050  4.5GW wind plus 30GW  solar by 2050
   Nuclear  No new nuclear  30GW by 2050 (10GW by  2026)
   Hydro imports  No new imports  17GW by 2050
   Clean Coal  Supercritical (36%)  41% (2025); 45% (2030);  47% (2035)
   Capture & Storage  None  All new coal plant from  2035
   
 
   
 
CO2 emissions scenarios from 2025 to 2050       Back to top